Tick & Volatility Analysis
How far FCPO moves in a day – in ticks and ringgit per contract (1 tick = RM1/t = RM25/contract) – broken down by year, month and weekday, plus the 40 biggest sessions since 2023.
By Year
Daily range statistics
| 2023 | 96.9 | RM 2,423 | 91.0 | 280 | 22 |
| 2024 | 90.9 | RM 2,273 | 80.0 | 250 | 24 |
| 2025 | 83.5 | RM 2,088 | 76.5 | 215 | 11 |
| 2026 YTD | 81.3 | RM 2,033 | 73.0 | 287 | 7 |
Volatility is compressing year after year: 2023 96.9t → 2024 90.9t → 2025 83.5t → 2026 YTD 81.3t.
By Calendar Month
Avg daily range (Jan–Dec)
| Jan | 89.5 | RM 2,238 |
| Feb | 81.7 | RM 2,043 |
| Mar | 103.7 | RM 2,593 |
| Apr | 100.9 | RM 2,523 |
| May | 92.5 | RM 2,313 |
| Jun | 82.8 | RM 2,070 |
| Jul | 77.0 | RM 1,925 |
| Aug | 79.3 | RM 1,983 |
| Sep | 80.5 | RM 2,013 |
| Oct | 90.2 | RM 2,255 |
| Nov | 98.1 | RM 2,453 |
| Dec | 89.7 | RM 2,243 |
By Day of Week
Avg daily range & opening gap
| Mon | 79.8 | RM 1,995 | 35.1 |
| Tue | 91.8 | RM 2,295 | 12.5 |
| Wed | 90.5 | RM 2,263 | 11.3 |
| Thu | 90.3 | RM 2,258 | 12.9 |
| Fri | 89.9 | RM 2,248 | 11.1 |
Monday has the smallest range (79.8t) but the largest opening gap (35t avg) – weekend risk is priced at the open.
Volatility Heatmap – Year × Month
Average daily range in ticks. Darker/brighter orange = more volatile (scale 60.6–149.5 ticks).
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 112 | 94 | 110 | 116 | 120 | 118 | 103 | 94 | 78 | 83 | 72 | 65 | 96.9 |
| 2024 | 71 | 64 | 80 | 94 | 74 | 62 | 70 | 74 | 85 | 119 | 150 | 140 | 90.9 |
| 2025 | 109 | 104 | 106 | 96 | 85 | 67 | 77 | 81 | 74 | 71 | 71 | 64 | 83.5 |
| 2026 | 69 | 63 | 118 | 99 | 90 | 82 | 61 | 66 | 84 | 76 | – | – | 81.3 |
Hot spots: Oct–Dec 2024 (119–150 ticks, rally to the all-time high and unwind), Q1–Q2 2023 (post-2022 de-risking) and Mar 2026 (118 ticks, Middle East crude shock). Quietest: Jul 2026 (60.6), Feb 2026 (62.5).
Daily Range Distribution
Histogram of 919 sessions in 10-tick buckets. Most common range: 60-69 ticks (135 days, 14.69%).
Half of all sessions range between 62.5 and 105.5 ticks (RM 1,563–RM 2,638 per contract). Only 10% exceed 138 ticks and 5% exceed 161 ticks – the long right tail is where energy and policy shocks live.
Biggest Moves – Top 20 Up & Down
Largest close-minus-open sessions, with RM value per contract and cause
| 1 | 2023-06-16 | Fri | +225 | +RM 5,625 | +6.40% | 280 | 3,518 | 3,743 | Mid-June 2023 rebound off the 8-month low: vegetable-oil complex rallied on El Nino supply worries and a strong Dalian/CBOT soyoil surge (short covering after the May sell-off). | Researched |
| 2 | 2024-10-02 | Wed | +196 | +RM 4,900 | +4.90% | 198 | 4,000 | 4,196 | Early-Oct 2024 breakout above 4,000: crude oil spiked after Iran's 1 Oct missile strike on Israel, adding to Indonesia B40 biodiesel optimism; start of the rally to the 5,202 high in Nov 2024. | Researched |
| 3 | 2023-07-24 | Mon | +175 | +RM 4,375 | +4.39% | 247 | 3,989 | 4,164 | Black Sea escalation: Russia exited the Black Sea Grain Initiative (17 Jul 2023) and attacked Ukrainian ports, lifting sunflower/soy oils; palm hit a 4-month high. | Researched |
| 4 | 2025-02-19 | Wed | +162 | +RM 4,050 | +3.59% | 194 | 4,510 | 4,672 | Feb 2025 rally: tight supply narrative/low Malaysian stocks with firm rival oils, lifting benchmark to ~4,700. | Researched |
| 5 | 2026-03-06 | Fri | +148 | +RM 3,700 | +3.51% | 172 | 4,219 | 4,367 | March 2026 energy-driven surge: Middle East (Iran) conflict pushed crude above $100 and revived biodiesel (POGO) demand; March 2026 +19.5% month. | Researched |
| 6 | 2023-04-18 | Tue | +147 | +RM 3,675 | +4.04% | 179 | 3,642 | 3,789 | Spring 2023 slide: seasonal production recovery and broad vegetable-oil weakness took FCPO from ~4,200 to the period low of 3,194 (1 Jun 2023). | Period context |
| 7 | 2024-11-29 | Fri | +146 | +RM 3,650 | +3.00% | 182 | 4,874 | 5,020 | Nov 2024 blow-off to the all-time high 5,202 (11 Nov): tight Malaysian stocks, flood risk and B40 optimism; palm at a record premium to soyoil. | Period context |
| 8 | 2025-03-07 | Fri | +146 | +RM 3,650 | +3.26% | 176 | 4,479 | 4,625 | Q1 2025: low Malaysian stocks supported rallies, followed by sharp liquidation as the palm premium to soyoil cut demand. | Period context |
| 9 | 2024-11-15 | Fri | +138 | +RM 3,450 | +2.79% | 177 | 4,950 | 5,088 | Nov 2024 blow-off to the all-time high 5,202 (11 Nov): tight Malaysian stocks, flood risk and B40 optimism; palm at a record premium to soyoil. | Period context |
| 10 | 2025-08-11 | Mon | +133 | +RM 3,325 | +3.13% | 145 | 4,251 | 4,384 | MPOB report day (monthly supply & demand data, 12:30 MYT). Aug 2025: palm reached its highest level since May 2024 (~US$957/t) on tightening supply/demand – a consistently bullish August. | Period context |
| 11 | 2024-11-08 | Fri | +131 | +RM 3,275 | +2.64% | 139 | 4,970 | 5,101 | Nov 2024 blow-off to the all-time high 5,202 (11 Nov): tight Malaysian stocks, flood risk and B40 optimism; palm at a record premium to soyoil. | Period context |
| 12 | 2024-10-24 | Thu | +125 | +RM 3,125 | +2.79% | 159 | 4,478 | 4,603 | Sep–Oct 2024 breakout: Iran-Israel escalation lifted crude, Indonesia B40 optimism, and FCPO broke above 4,000 toward 5,000. | Period context |
| 13 | 2023-07-10 | Mon | +120 | +RM 3,000 | +3.16% | 143 | 3,800 | 3,920 | MPOB report day (monthly supply & demand data, 12:30 MYT). Mid-2023 recovery: El Niño supply worries and Black Sea supply risk to sunflower oil lifted the veg-oil complex. | Period context |
| 14 | 2024-11-11 | Mon | +120 | +RM 3,000 | +2.36% | 144 | 5,076 | 5,196 | MPOB report day (monthly supply & demand data, 12:30 MYT). Nov 2024 blow-off to the all-time high 5,202 (11 Nov): tight Malaysian stocks, flood risk and B40 optimism; palm at a record premium to soyoil. | Period context |
| 15 | 2023-02-16 | Thu | +119 | +RM 2,975 | +3.01% | 166 | 3,950 | 4,069 | Driver not individually verified – single-session move; check news archive. | Period context |
| 16 | 2023-01-27 | Fri | +118 | +RM 2,950 | +3.12% | 137 | 3,784 | 3,902 | Driver not individually verified – single-session move; check news archive. | Period context |
| 17 | 2023-05-08 | Mon | +117 | +RM 2,925 | +3.21% | 163 | 3,645 | 3,762 | Spring 2023 slide: seasonal production recovery and broad vegetable-oil weakness took FCPO from ~4,200 to the period low of 3,194 (1 Jun 2023). | Period context |
| 18 | 2024-09-26 | Thu | +115 | +RM 2,875 | +2.85% | 126 | 4,037 | 4,152 | Sep–Oct 2024 breakout: Iran-Israel escalation lifted crude, Indonesia B40 optimism, and FCPO broke above 4,000 toward 5,000. | Period context |
| 19 | 2024-12-03 | Tue | +115 | +RM 2,875 | +2.32% | 141 | 4,960 | 5,075 | Dec 2024 – Jan 2025 unwind: demand rationing at a record palm premium to soyoil and weak Indian buying. | Period context |
| 20 | 2025-08-05 | Tue | +115 | +RM 2,875 | +2.75% | 129 | 4,175 | 4,290 | Aug 2025: palm reached its highest level since May 2024 (~US$957/t) on tightening supply/demand – a consistently bullish August. | Period context |
Move = close minus open of the session (intraday directional move). “Researched” contexts were verified in Phase 1; “Period context” describes the documented market regime around that date (and flags MPOB report days) rather than a verified single-day headline.