Overview · Live Price Context
Where FCPO trades right now relative to structure, seasonality, volatility and the fundamental backdrop. Type a price to update every panel instantly.
Current FCPO Price
Front-month benchmark (FCPO1!), RM/tonne
Your manual price is stored in this browser and drives every context panel and the Trade Plan.
Where Are We Now?
Price vs. major structure (support 3,950–4,020 · resistance 5,031–5,200)
Price is in the middle of the structure. Location edge is weak – rely on intermediate S/R zones and mean-reversion rules.
Seasonal Bias – This Month
From 2023–2026 monthly returns (3–4 observations per month)
Today’s Volatility Context
ATR(20) = 82.4 ticks · ATR(14) = 83.2 ticks (as of 2026-10-05)
| Daily range percentile | Ticks | RM/contract |
|---|---|---|
| 25th (quiet day) | 63 | RM 1,563 |
| 50th (median) | 80 | RM 2,000 |
| 75th (busy day) | 106 | RM 2,638 |
| 90th (stretched) | 138 | RM 3,450 |
| 95th (extreme) | 161 | RM 4,025 |
Bands are anchored to the current price. A day beyond the 90th percentile (138 ticks) is statistically stretched – favour mean reversion, not chasing.
Active Fundamental Factors
Research cut-off 26 Sep 2026 · macro quotes refresh every 5 minutes
Near-record event, forecast to peak Oct 2026 – Jan 2027; NOAA Sep bulletin ~65% chance of strong-or-very-strong through Feb 2027. Forward supply risk – biological yield impact lags 12–18 months.
Production ~1.82 Mt, stocks +7.5% MoM to 2.82 Mt (8-month high), exports -7.5% – the loosest balance of the period. Drove the late-Sep slide to 4,535; caps rallies until stocks draw. Next MPOB: Mon 12 Oct (Sep data).
B40 utilisation 105% of target in 2025. B50 rollout reported underway since Sep 2026 (B60 in early discussion). An export-levy hike to fund biodiesel is under review – supportive but a headline-risk both ways.
Further 2026 reductions to crude edible-oil import duties (reported cuts toward ~5% or below; exact rate/date unconfirmed) – supports import demand into the Diwali window.
High crude narrows the POGO spread and supports biodiesel economics. Crude shocks drove the Mar–Apr 2026 swings.
A wide palm discount supports discretionary import demand; parity or a premium (as in Nov 2024) rations demand.
Indian festive buying typically happens 4–8 weeks before Diwali – restocking was NOT yet visible in Sep export prints; watch surveyor data as the confirming signal.
Malaysian output usually peaks Sep–Oct. September leaned down again in 2026 (-5.8%, 1 of 4 up historically).
Last 180 Sessions vs Key Zones
Daily close, high and low with major support (green) and resistance (red) bands
Stop sizing reference: 1 × average daily range = 88.6 ticks = RM 2,215 per contract. Stops tighter than ~40 ticks sit inside normal intraday noise.