Fundamental Calendar & Events
What moves FCPO and when: the month-by-month fundamental calendar, 16 key events with measured price reactions, report countdowns and cross-market correlations (Brent, soybean oil, USD/MYR).
Month-by-Month Fundamental Calendar
Conditional operating calendar – festival dates migrate; confirm with export data
JANCNY restocking + MPOB December reportBullish
- Supply:
- Low-output part of the cycle; assess monsoon flood disruption and year-end carry-in stocks.
- Demand:
- Post-year-end demand and any Lunar New Year restocking window.
- Policy / weather:
- Indonesia annual biodiesel allocation; first WASDE; monsoon logistics.
- Action:
- Compare January production with prior Januaries, not only December.
- Price record (January):
- mixed / no clear bias
FEBProduction low, CNY demand continuationBullish
- Supply:
- Low-season production remains important.
- Demand:
- Lunar New Year timing may shift shipments; monitor China competing-oil stocks.
- Policy / weather:
- Weather disruptions and actual Indonesian blending.
- Action:
- Bullish only if exports confirm holiday demand.
- Price record (February):
- leans UP
MARRamadan procurement window beginsNeutral
- Supply:
- Early production recovery – does it exceed seasonal norms?
- Demand:
- Ramadan procurement; India and regional demand.
- Policy / weather:
- ENSO transition risk; Indonesian levy/subsidy funding.
- Action:
- Weight export estimates more heavily when confirmed across windows.
- Price record (March):
- mixed / no clear bias
APRProduction recovery + post-Ramadan lullBearish
- Supply:
- Production recovery becomes visible.
- Demand:
- Post-restocking lull after Ramadan/Eid.
- Policy / weather:
- Phase 1: strongest bearish price seasonality.
- Action:
- Sell rallies into resistance; require stock confirmation.
- Price record (April):
- consistently DOWN
MAYTransitional monthNeutral
- Supply:
- Rising-output season becomes relevant.
- Demand:
- India duty & festival positioning; palm vs soybean oil.
- Policy / weather:
- Dry-season development; biodiesel-fund adequacy.
- Action:
- Focus on production-minus-exports change.
- Price record (May):
- mixed / no clear bias
JUNMid-year rebalancingNeutral
- Supply:
- Pace of production acceleration.
- Demand:
- India/China buying elasticity; duty effects.
- Policy / weather:
- Rainfall deficits as forward concern; WASDE oilseeds.
- Action:
- Separate current ample supply from later weather risk.
- Price record (June):
- leans UP
JULMid-year rebalancing, quiet tapeNeutral
- Supply:
- Seasonal production strength builds.
- Demand:
- Pre-festival Indian restocking may emerge.
- Policy / weather:
- Indonesia production & biodiesel absorption; dry season.
- Action:
- Track stock trajectory and calendar spreads.
- Price record (July):
- leans UP
AUGPre-festive restockingBullish
- Supply:
- Output approaching peak-season levels.
- Demand:
- Festival restocking (Diwali build) and relative-price demand.
- Policy / weather:
- Weather narratives can intensify.
- Action:
- Buy pullbacks; require price acceptance.
- Price record (August):
- consistently UP
SEPWatch crude oil; peak-season supplyNeutral
- Supply:
- Peak-season window approaches.
- Demand:
- Diwali-linked demand may occur before the holiday.
- Policy / weather:
- Indian duty policy, ENSO outlook, EUDR.
- Action:
- Compare production with September history; watch Brent.
- Price record (September):
- leans DOWN
OCTDiwali demand, production peak startsBullish
- Supply:
- Peak/near-peak supply may persist.
- Demand:
- Indian festive demand – check if restocking already passed.
- Policy / weather:
- ENSO and monsoon transition.
- Action:
- Watch for peak-production inflection.
- Price record (October):
- mixed / no clear bias
NOVProduction peak, watch stocksNeutral
- Supply:
- Production may begin seasonal decline.
- Demand:
- Year-end & Lunar New Year procurement may start.
- Policy / weather:
- Flood risk; next-year biodiesel announcements.
- Action:
- Look for confirmed MoM and YoY production contraction.
- Price record (November):
- mixed / no clear bias
DECYear-end selling, high stocksBearish
- Supply:
- Seasonal decline & flood disruption can tighten supply.
- Demand:
- Holiday shipment timing, forthcoming LNY restocking.
- Policy / weather:
- Year-end policy announcements.
- Action:
- Sell failed rallies; lighten into year-end.
- Price record (December):
- consistently DOWN
Click a month to expand. The narrative badge reflects the fundamental story; the price-record badge shows what FCPO actually did 2023–2026. When they disagree (e.g. January, October), trust confirmed data over the calendar.
Key Report Tracker
MPOB = 10th of each month, 12:30 MYT
Decision Hierarchy
Weight signals in this order
- 1Malaysian stocks & monthly stock change (MPOB)
- 2Indonesia exportable surplus (B40 absorption, levies)
- 3Near-term exports (surveyor estimates)
- 4Relative value vs soybean oil
- 5Weather – immediate vs 12–18-month lagged
- 6Crude oil & biodiesel (POGO) economics
- 7USD/MYR
- 8Calendar effects (festivals, production seasonality)
Biggest Fundamental Events 2023–2026
FCPO reaction in ticks measured from the prior session close (Day 0, +5 and +20 sessions)
- 2023-01-16PolicyFundamental: bullishIndonesia B35 transition export levy/duty
Levy US$95/t plus duty US$74/t applied during B35 transition – supportive to Malaysian competitiveness.
Prior close3,8412023-01-16Day 0+11t+RM275+5 sessions+51t+RM1,275+20 sessions+228t+RM5,700 - 2023-05-10 (approx.)WeatherFundamental: bullishMPOB warns El Niño could cut 2024 output
Forecast reduction of 1–3 million tonnes in Malaysia 2024 production (forecast risk, not confirmed loss).
Prior close3,8072023-05-10Day 0-98t-RM2,450+5 sessions-350t-RM8,750+20 sessions-487t-RM12,175 - 2023-07-17GeopoliticsFundamental: bullishRussia exits Black Sea Grain Initiative
Sunflower/soy oil supply risk lifted the whole vegetable-oil complex; +175-tick FCPO session on 24 Jul 2023.
Prior close3,8812023-07-17Day 0+49t+RM1,225+5 sessions+283t+RM7,075+20 sessions-187t-RM4,675 - 2023-09-11 (approx.)SupplyFundamental: bearishMPOB revises 2024 output higher
Labour recovery and maturing plantings offset weather risk; 2023 output ~19 Mt vs 18.45 Mt in 2022.
Prior close3,8302023-09-11Day 0-117t-RM2,925+5 sessions-45t-RM1,125+20 sessions-225t-RM5,625 - 2024-09-16DemandFundamental: bearishIndia raises edible-oil import duties
Crude-oil effective duty to 27.5%, refined to 35.75% (announced 14 Sep 2024).
Prior close3,8142024-09-17Day 0-78t-RM1,950+5 sessions+163t+RM4,075+20 sessions+499t+RM12,475 - 2024-10-02EnergyFundamental: bullishIran missile strike lifts crude; B40 optimism
Crude spike plus Indonesia B40 hopes – +196-tick session, breakout above 4,000 area.
Prior close4,0062024-10-02Day 0+190t+RM4,750+5 sessions+265t+RM6,625+20 sessions+631t+RM15,775 - 2024-11-11MarketFundamental: bearishFCPO all-time high 5,202
Blow-off top at record palm premium to soyoil – formed the 5,031–5,200 double-top resistance.
Prior close5,1012024-11-11Day 0+95t+RM2,375+5 sessions-13t-RM325+20 sessions+27t+RM675 - 2024-12-10 (approx.)SupplyFundamental: bullishMalaysian stocks at 19-month low (1.71 Mt)
Weather/flood-affected output – but price reversed lower on demand rationing (-175 ticks).
Prior close5,1202024-12-10Day 0-169t-RM4,225+5 sessions-362t-RM9,050+20 sessions-766t-RM19,150 - 2025-01-02PolicyFundamental: bullishIndonesia implements B40
Official allocation 15.6 million kL – structural domestic demand floor. First session saw -179 ticks on weak Indian demand.
Prior close4,4482025-01-02Day 0-115t-RM2,875+5 sessions-94t-RM2,350+20 sessions-159t-RM3,975 - 2025-05-19PolicyFundamental: bullishIndonesia raises export levies to fund B40
CPO levy 7.5% → 10%; refined products 6% → 9.5% (announced 17 May 2025).
Prior close3,8152025-05-19Day 0+67t+RM1,675+5 sessions+12t+RM300+20 sessions+279t+RM6,975 - 2025-06-11DemandFundamental: bullishIndia cuts crude edible-oil duty
Basic duty 20% → 10%; crude/refined differential widened to 19.25%.
Prior close3,8642025-06-11Day 0-25t-RM625+5 sessions+200t+RM5,000+20 sessions+293t+RM7,325 - 2025-08-11 (approx.)MarketFundamental: bullishPalm hits highest since May 2024
~US$957/t amid tightening supply and demand; +133-tick session.
Prior close4,2552025-08-11Day 0+129t+RM3,225+5 sessions+217t+RM5,425+20 sessions+224t+RM5,600 - 2026-03-06EnergyFundamental: bullishMiddle East conflict – crude above $100
Revived POGO/biodiesel demand; FCPO +19.5% in March 2026 with record two-way volatility.
Prior close4,2072026-03-06Day 0+160t+RM4,000+5 sessions+334t+RM8,350+20 sessions+604t+RM15,100 - 2026-04-08EnergyFundamental: bearishUS-Iran ceasefire crashes crude
Largest single-session drop in the dataset: -213 ticks (RM5,325/contract).
Prior close4,7652026-04-08Day 0-179t-RM4,475+5 sessions-299t-RM7,475+20 sessions-186t-RM4,650 - 2026-08-10 (approx.)SupplyFundamental: bearishMPOB: high Malaysian production & stocks
Production ~1.82 Mt; stocks 2.82 Mt – loosest balance in the period.
Prior close4,6772026-08-10Day 0+46t+RM1,150+5 sessions+33t+RM825+20 sessions+299t+RM7,475 - 2026-09-10WeatherFundamental: bullishNOAA confirms strengthening El Niño
>90% probability of a very strong event through NH fall/winter 2026-27 – forward (12–18 month lagged) supply risk.
Prior close4,9662026-09-10Day 0-81t-RM2,025+5 sessions-30t-RM750+20 sessionsn/a
Crude Oil vs FCPO
Weekly closes: FCPO (RM/t, left) vs Brent (USD/bbl, right)
The crude link is conditional, not constant: it tightened sharply during energy shocks (Oct 2024, Mar–Apr 2026) when biodiesel economics (POGO) mattered most. No universal Brent threshold is supported by the evidence.
Soybean Oil Spread
CPO and SBO in USD/t with the CPO–SBO spread (negative = palm discount)
Palm traded at a premium to soyoil in only 12.7% of weeks – notably Nov–Dec 2024, which preceded the sharp demand-rationing sell-off from the all-time high. A deep palm discount is demand-supportive. SBO converted from CBOT cents/lb (× 22.046); CPO from FCPO ÷ USD/MYR.
USD/MYR vs FCPO
Weekly closes: FCPO (left) vs USD/MYR (right) – rising line = weaker ringgit
MYR weakness is bullish for ringgit-priced FCPO in theory, but over 2023–2026 the level correlation was -0.528 (ringgit strengthened from ~4.7 to ~4.1 while FCPO trended higher). Treat FX as a modifier, not a driver.
Rolling 26-Week Correlation
Correlation of weekly FCPO returns with each market
Soyoil is the most persistent partner (full-period ρ 0.487). When the Brent correlation spikes above ~0.5, energy is driving palm – expect larger ranges and respect crude headlines.