Live Trade Plan

When: August (strong), Feb / Jun / Jul (moderate). Price in lower two-thirds of the range or holding an intermediate support.

• 1.Calendar month has a bullish seasonal bias (Aug strongest: 4/4 years up).
• 2.Price is NOT inside the 5,031–5,200 resistance zone.
• 3.At least one fundamental confirmation: MPOB stocks draw / exports up, Brent firm or rising, palm at a discount to soyoil, or MYR weakening.
• 4.No MPOB release within the next session (or position sized for it).
• 5.Daily structure: higher low vs. prior swing or reclaim of prior-day high.

Entry: Buy a pullback of ~0.5 × ATR (≈40–45 ticks) from the prior-day high into an intermediate support zone, or on a reclaim of the prior-day high.

• Stop 60 ticks = RM1,500/contract (~0.7 × ATR) placed beyond the swing low.
• Take half at T1 (90 ticks ≈ 1 ATR), trail the rest under daily lows toward T2.
• R:R = 1.5 (T1) to 2.5 (T2).

Do not buy in the resistance zone or on the day after a 150+ tick up-day (exhaustion risk).

When: April (strongest: 4/4 years down, p=0.007), December (3/3 down), September (moderate). Price in upper two-thirds of the range.

• 1.Calendar month has a bearish seasonal bias.
• 2.Price is NOT inside the 3,950–4,020 support zone.
• 3.Fundamental confirmation: MPOB stocks building, production recovering faster than exports, palm at parity/premium to soyoil, or Brent falling.
• 4.Daily structure: lower high or loss of prior-day low.

Entry: Sell a rally of ~0.5 × ATR into an intermediate resistance zone, or on a break of the prior-day low after a failed bounce.

• Stop 60 ticks = RM1,500/contract above the swing high.
• April average decline is -391 ticks – let a runner work with a trailing stop.
• R:R = 1.5 (T1) to 2.5 (T2).

Do not short into the support zone or right before MPOB if consensus expects a stock draw.

When: Report day: the 10th of each month at 12:30 MYT (next business day if the 10th is a holiday/weekend).

• 1.Flat or reduced size 30 minutes before 12:30 MYT.
• 2.Know consensus for production, exports and ending stocks beforehand.
• 3.Stocks surprise vs consensus is meaningful (≈ >50k t) and components agree.
• 4.Wait for the first 15–30 min candle after release to close.

Entry: Trade the break of the post-release 15–30 min candle in the direction of the stock surprise (stock draw → long, stock build → short).

• Stop at the other side of the reaction candle, capped at 50 ticks (RM1,250).
• T1 ≈ 1 × ATR (85 ticks); T2 130 ticks if the move holds into the close.
• If the headline and components conflict, stand aside.

Never hold full size into the release; avoid fading the first move unless it fails back through the pre-release price.

When: Price closes beyond the major structure: above 5,200 (all-time high 5,202) or below 3,950.

• 1.Daily CLOSE outside the zone (intraday pokes do not count – the 5,031–5,200 zone produced a double top).
• 2.Acceptance: a second close outside or a successful retest of the broken edge.
• 3.Fundamental driver present (energy shock, policy change, MPOB surprise).
• 4.Expanding ATR (current ATR above its 20-day average).

Entry: Upside: buy the retest of 5,170–5,200 after acceptance. Downside: sell the retest of 3,950–4,020 after a close below 3,950.

• Stop 70 ticks (RM1,750) back inside the zone – a close back inside = failed breakout, exit.
• Downside objective: 3,750 round number (touched on 75 days) ≈ 200 ticks.
• R:R ≈ 2.1 to 3.6.

Do not buy the first poke above 5,200 – FCPO ranges 67% of the time and false breaks are the norm.

When: Ranging regime (weekly ADX < 25 – true ~67% of weeks).

• 1.Price extends ≥ 1.5 × ATR (≈130 ticks) from the 5-day midpoint, or tags an intermediate S/R zone.
• 2.The session range already exceeds the 90th percentile (138 ticks) – extension is statistically stretched.
• 3.No scheduled catalyst (MPOB, WASDE) and no energy-market shock underway.
• 4.Reversal signal: rejection wick or close back inside the prior-day range.

Entry: Fade the extreme after a rejection candle; enter on the first 15-min close back toward the midpoint.

• Stop 45 ticks (RM1,125) beyond the extreme.
• Target the 5-day midpoint (60–80 ticks).
• R:R ≈ 1.3 to 1.8 – higher win-rate, lower payoff.

Never fade on MPOB day, during crude-oil shocks or when price is breaking the major 3,950/5,200 edges.