Seasonal Patterns
The calendar edge in FCPO: which months and weekdays have historically trended, and how strongly. Built from monthly and daily returns, Jan 2023 – Sep 2026.
Seasonal Calendar
Monthly return % by year – green = bullish month, red = bearish month, grey = flat (|return| < 1%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -8.0 | +8.6 | -9.2 | -11.3 | -4.1 | +18.4 | +2.4 | +3.4 | -6.1 | -2.3 | +5.9 | -4.5 |
| 2024 | +2.1 | +4.5 | +5.6 | -9.0 | +6.8 | -3.9 | -0.2 | +1.8 | +0.5 | +17.6 | +6.9 | -11.4 |
| 2025 | -3.6 | +6.2 | -3.0 | -11.5 | -0.8 | +2.8 | +6.1 | +3.5 | -0.6 | -3.3 | -2.2 | -1.6 |
| 2026 | +4.4 | -4.4 | +19.4 | -5.3 | -0.8 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +5.4 | -5.8 | -0.7 | – | – |
| % bullish | 50% | 75% | 50% | 0% | 25% | 75% | 75% | 100% | 25% | 25% | 67% | 0% |
| Avg % | -1.3 | +3.7 | +3.2 | -9.3 | +0.3 | +4.4 | +2.6 | +3.5 | -3.0 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -5.8 |
Monthly stats use 3-4 observations per calendar month (2023-2026); treat as tendencies, not statistically proven edges (none survives multiple-comparison correction). Oct 2026 may be partial (data to 2026-10-05). Strongest patterns: April down 4/4 years, August up 4/4, December down 3/3 (raw p = 0.007 / 0.018 – none significant after correcting for 12 months tested).
Monthly Bias
Average vs median monthly return by calendar month
Day-of-Week Bias
Average ticks per session (Mon–Fri)
Friday is the strongest day (+7.7 t close-to-close, +6.1 t intraday); Tuesday the weakest (-9.7 t, 45.2% up days). Neither is statistically significant (p > 0.05) – use as a tie-breaker only.
Best & Worst Months – Ranked
Sorted by average monthly return; p-value from a one-sample t-test (lower = more reliable)
| 1 | Jun | Bullish | +4.36% | +1.51% | 75.0% | +136.8 | +RM 3,420 | 0.436 | 4 |
| 2 | Feb | Bullish | +3.72% | +5.36% | 75.0% | +144.2 | +RM 3,605 | 0.281 | 4 |
| 3 | Aug | Bullish | +3.53% | +3.47% | 100.0% | +150.5 | +RM 3,763 | 0.018 | 4 |
| 4 | Nov | Neutral | +3.52% | +5.87% | 66.7% | +149 | +RM 3,725 | 0.346 | 3 |
| 5 | Mar | Neutral | +3.23% | +1.34% | 50.0% | +123.5 | +RM 3,088 | 0.638 | 4 |
| 6 | Oct | Neutral | +2.80% | -1.52% | 25.0% | +109 | +RM 2,725 | 0.611 | 4 |
| 7 | Jul | Bullish | +2.60% | +2.24% | 75.0% | +105.5 | +RM 2,638 | 0.141 | 4 |
| 8 | May | Neutral | +0.26% | -0.80% | 25.0% | +13.2 | +RM 330 | 0.916 | 4 |
| 9 | Jan | Neutral | -1.27% | -0.75% | 50.0% | -58.5 | -RM 1,462 | 0.682 | 4 |
| 10 | Sep | Bearish | -3.01% | -3.22% | 25.0% | -134.2 | -RM 3,355 | 0.174 | 4 |
| 11 | Dec | Bearish | -5.81% | -4.47% | 0.0% | -270 | -RM 6,750 | 0.185 | 3 |
| 12 | Apr | Bearish | -9.26% | -10.11% | 0.0% | -391.2 | -RM 9,780 | 0.007 | 4 |
Day-of-Month Effect
Return and range by part of the month
Days 1–10 (MPOB window) carry the widest ranges (91.8 t). Late-month sessions are the quietest and slightly negative.
Month-by-Month Interpretation
Price seasonality (data) combined with the fundamental narrative (research)
Price record is MIXED (avg -1.3%, 2 of 4 up). The CNY narrative is bullish, but in 2023 and 2025 January fell as high stocks carried over. Trade the MPOB stock change, not the calendar.
Leans UP: 3 of 4 years positive, avg +3.7%, median +5.4%. Low production supports buy-the-dip tactics early in the month.
Most VOLATILE month (103.7 ticks avg range). Direction mixed: +19.5% in 2026 (crude shock), -9.2% in 2023. Size down; expect whipsaws.
Strongest seasonal edge: DOWN in all 4 years (avg -9.3%, -391 ticks). Raw t-test p=0.007, though with 12 months tested this does not survive multiple-comparison correction - treat as a consistent tilt, not a proven edge. Primary short month.
Mixed (avg +0.3%, only 1 of 4 up). Post-April bounces often fail – no strong edge.
Leans UP (3 of 4, avg +4.4%), skewed by +18.4% in 2023. Median only +1.5% – moderate long bias.
Leans UP (3 of 4, avg +2.6%) and the QUIETEST month (77 ticks). Good for tighter stops.
Most CONSISTENT bullish month: UP in all 4 years (avg +3.5%, p=0.018). Primary long month.
Leans DOWN (1 of 4 up, avg -2.7%). August strength often fades into supply-heavy September.
Narrative bullish (Diwali) but price is MIXED: +17.6% in 2024, down in 2023 & 2025. Only trade longs with export confirmation.
Mixed (2 of 3 up, avg +3.5%) and second most volatile (98 ticks). The 2024 all-time high (5,202) printed in November.
Consistently DOWN (0 of 3 up, avg -5.8%, -270 ticks). Second-best short month despite bullish supply narratives.